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KUALA LUMPUR: The earnings growth of Asia-Pacific (APAC) emerging market (EM) companies is set to outperform that of developed market (DM) companies, Moody's Investors Service said.
However, the ongoing political tensions and uncertain economic conditions will present risks to recovery, according to a new report by Moody's today.
Moody's vice-president and senior analyst Rachel Chua said that on aggregate, the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of Moody's-rated EM companies in APAC will grow 28 per cent this year from 2019, while rated DM companies' earnings will grow 14 per cent in the same period.
"But EM companies have taken on more debt relative to earnings growth, resulting in weaker debt to EBITDA. Their average leverage will rise to 5.1 times in 2022 from 4.3 times in 2019, compared with DM companies' largely stable leverage of around 4.5 times,” she said.,
Companies in China (A1 stable), Indonesia (Baa2 stable), India (Baa3 stable), Malaysia (A3 stable) and Thailand (Baa1 stable) will see earnings growth of varying degrees, with those in Indonesia reporting the highest earnings growth of 56 per cent, followed by 51 per cent in India and 36 per cent in Thailand.
This will be driven by commodity producers benefiting from high spot prices, the report said.
Sector-wise, Moody's said earnings and leverage will improve for most industries, with the earnings of metals, mining and steel as well as oil and gas companies growing the most on elevated prices.
"Consumer-focused industries such as autos and retail will benefit from pent-up demand as social restrictions ease.
"Geopolitical uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine military conflict and the still-factious US-China relationship, and the soft macroeconomic environment will pose downside risks to these projections. Any further weakening in global economic conditions will hurt Moody's earnings projections for 2022,” it said. - Bernama